Bitcoin Crosses $100,000 for the First Time
The round-number milestone fell in a single overnight session, less than two months after the U.S. election results re-priced the macro and regulatory backdrop.
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The round-number milestone fell in a single overnight session, less than two months after the U.S. election results re-priced the macro and regulatory backdrop.
Sustained ETF inflows and a softer dollar combined to push Bitcoin to a new cycle peak, extending its rally to more than 30% above the December 2024 highs.
Phong Le acknowledged on a podcast that a multi-quarter price freeze remains a real possibility — a notable change of tone from the firm's usual unalloyed bullishness.
The 30-day correlation between BTC and the U.S. Dollar Index touched -0.90 this month, the most extreme level since 2022, as macro dominates crypto-specific drivers.
After two years near zero, the rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has nearly doubled, raising hard questions about the asset's diversification value.
Crypto and equities fell together after the administration unveiled sweeping tariffs, sending BTC down nearly 15% in a single 48-hour stretch.
For most of late 2023 and early 2024, BTC's 90-day correlation with U.S. equities collapsed toward zero, only to climb back later in the year.
The bank's crypto research desk, long an aggressive bull, formally cut its year-end target to below the round number, citing macro headwinds.
Implied vol on listed Bitcoin options briefly fell below levels last seen in 2019, reflecting the asset's increasing maturity as a regulated macro instrument.
Bitcoin's halving-driven boom-bust pattern emerged in a specific market structure that no longer exists. The next cycle will look different.
Every six months, someone declares the BTC-equity correlation broken. They're always wrong, and the data is now too clear to keep entertaining the idea.